The central bank has repeatedly cut interest rates, discount business loan fund, "two children" and other full liberalization in 2015,
a series of policies have created extremely favorable conditions for the recovery of the real estate industry. With the acceleration of
inventory to speed, some experts believe that real estate last year could become the highest annual sales area. In 2016, the property
market is likely to further change occurs, the booming demand and supply status will appear. In the north of Guangzhou-Shenzhen line
market among the four, the Guangzhou market supply and demand remain relatively balanced, the price will be relatively stable.
House prices are still rising pressure
Institute recently released a Chinese real estate market "price of a hundred cities" shows that in December 2015, 100 cities nationwide
(new) residential average price of 10,980 yuan / square meter, up 0.74%. It is worth mentioning that, since May 2015, city residential
average price has risen for eight consecutive months the chain appears.
Year term, 100 cities (New) residential average price of 2014 compared with the same period rose 4.15%, or 1.22 percentage points
compared to expand in November last year. According to the median calculation, 100 cities nationwide (new) median housing price 7037
yuan / square meter, down 0.37%, rose 1.44%.
In addition, the top ten cities Beijing, Shanghai and other (new) residential average price of 20,624 yuan / square meter, up 1.14%, or
0.15 percentage points over last year to expand in November; rose 9.25%, or more compared with 1.62 last November percentage point.
Middle finger hospital context analysis, the next stage, with the central level to the inventory, and stabilize the property market
gradually deployed throughout the relevant landing embodiment, the relationship between market supply and demand will be a strong
regulator, is expected to further ease the pressure on the stock. Thus, price, malls and housing prices a whole will continue to
steadily rise, some of the high stock of urban housing prices or moderate price cuts in government encouragement and policy support;
and some hot urban demand and high land prices and other factors that, prices are still there is upward pressure.
For the full year 2015, the real estate market situation and development trend of 2016, Albert I love my family (microblogging), group
vice president Hu Jinghui analysis, the national property market appeared more obvious carryover at the end of 2015. Policy tone from
the property point of view, to the inventory will continue to be important to control the direction of the property market in 2016. To
defuse the high pressure on the stock, the future is expected to continue to decrease through the purchase of mortgage payment first,
reduce transaction links tax, provident fund loans and other favorable policies to further relax portfolio to expand effective demand,
stabilize the real estate market. In the macro-policy environment favorable to stimulate the premise, first-tier cities and key capital
cities to improve the type of housing demand will continue to release, "increase in volume rising values" or will continue to dominate
the new home market.
Balanced supply and demand inventories fell Guangzhou
In 2015, the relationship between supply and demand is the real estate industry in all aspects of the topic discussed. From the
beginning of last year to be worried about high inventory, then the government should vigorously propaganda to the inventory, supply
and demand in the property market in 2016 has been how to take vital. As the four major cities of the north of Guangzhou-Shenzhen, is
the focus of attention.
According to Centaline Research Department monitors, with the north-tier cities of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the primary residential
turnover are more substantial recovery. Guangzhou housing prices is not only far lower than in other cities, in other three cities in
the volume and price trend, Guangzhou prices were flat compared with last year. The supply and demand relationship has become critical
in determining prices. From the volume increase, in the last year, up 8 percent in Shenzhen, Shanghai is close to 6 percent, more than
the volume of the same period in 2013. The rapid growth in demand will stimulate transaction price surge, in Shenzhen and Shanghai are
also four first-tier cities, the biggest rise in prices, especially near Shenzhen, prices rose 4 percent.
It has been observed, skyrocketing housing prices in Shenzhen occur in the second half of 2015, to maintain the atmosphere hotter
auction is the main driver of housing prices in Shenzhen. The contrast, Beijing and Shanghai, the average price increase comparison, as
of November 2015, the two cities annual price rises were 11% and 19%.
Data show that in 2015, the year the city's 11 districts of Guangzhou-hand residential net signed area of 10,770,400 square meters, an
increase of 2.4114 million square meters more than in 2014, an increase of 28.8%, has exceeded 2013 levels.
For the Guangzhou-hand residential market, in which the four first-tier cities, is a supply and demand remain balanced, the price is
relatively stable. Data show that in 2015 the people of Guangzhou digestion of 18 million sets of a second-hand housing and apartments,
the purchasing power of the market is still very strong. In 2016, Guangzhou City, is expected to add stock and commodity housing will
be 19 million units have been shipped, the number of supply is abundant, more importantly, the new supply of 18 sets of consumption in
2015 is almost the same in terms of . In other words, supply and demand in 2016 will reach equilibrium, the market will still be
booming demand and supply status. According to Centaline Property Research Department analysis, enter 2016, Guangzhou primary
residential market with inventory digestion cycle further shortening, prices will likely continue.
Improve the type of demand continues to release wards
Since January 1, 2016, two comprehensive child policy official arrival, plus since the beginning of 2015 to cut interest rates several
times, and in 2015 the New Deal Canton of provident fund loans, both for first-time home buyers or improve wards are You can receive
the loan fund interest rates and favorable benefit the New Deal. Which improve the type of comprehensive two-child policy, driven by
demand for the release of the wards, worthy of attention.
Rich home transaction data, according to statistics, from January 1-5 recorded cases in which second-hand housing turnover, improve the
type of demand wards about 48%, significantly higher than the proportion of first time home buyers just need to purchase. Detonated
release wards to improve the type of demand, and these days it is not just two comprehensive child policy after landing.
Since the third quarter of 2014, demand has improved type wards showing a gradual increasing trend in the second quarter of 2015 has
risen to 37%. From the analysis of the situation throughout the year 2015 to improve the type wards ratio of about 35%.
Improve the type of buyers into the market by the positive impact of the promotion, active trading of big house property also
significant increase. Rich home transaction data statistics, 2015 90-120 square meters of secondary residential transactions accounted
for 26%, significantly higher than 19% in 2014.
Since the two comprehensive child policy official landing operation since January 1, in this circumstance, demand is expected to
further improve the type wards release. Accordingly, since the start of 2016 turnover trend, large units will continue to be in favor
of improving the type buyers, tend to be more mainstream size four bedrooms and more tenements.
Real estate is still a lot of room
In the relaxed environment of a comprehensive policy for the real estate in the coming year, the industry is still full of confidence.
Ren Zhiqiang, vice president of China Real Estate Association believes that with the city doubled the number of households will bring a
lot of demand for housing, the future of real estate will continue to be a pillar, there is still a lot of development opportunities. "
Ren believes that this year's real estate sales area is likely to become the highest of the year. His analysis, in the case of
investment contraction in 2015 was in real estate sales rebound. There are three main reasons: One is the decline in housing prices.
Developers this year in order to run the amount of inventory, most of the regional house prices have declined. The second reason is
significantly lower mortgage rates. "Even if it is not the price, but the decline in interest rates, loan interest over two hundred
thousand million less, which is equivalent to the price decline." There is also a rise in the sales factor is the cause of the stock
market high-end housing sales rise.
Ren Shenzhen, for example, "Shenzhen high-priced home sales surge in now to shoot the floor price is more than 80,000." Recent housing
demand remains high, the problem for real estate inventory by the attention. According to data provided by Ren, after 4 trillion of
investment opportunities in real estate investment growth from 2011 after stock has been in more than 100 million square meters, the
coming years are sharply on the process. And 2015 has been more than 6 trillion nearly 7 trillion square meters. Stock rapid growth,
but Ren believes that the housing market is still great demand. "Before the media house said the future surplus, a person may inherit
6-7 suites, but they ignore an important issue, so much if you want to inherit the house, the old man must all die off, so that Chinese
people half to death."
Ren believes that now China's aging very serious, a lot of people 60-70 years of age. "Older persons but will increase sharply
increased demand for housing." Ren think aging population and two-child policy will change in family structure, and the number of
households increased exponentially city will bring a lot of demand for housing. "The future of real estate will continue to be a
pillar." He said the analysis, future changes in the real estate market, the population will be concentrated vibrant city, the
population of the city has the power to concentrate, to focus on the advantages of education, also focused on the environment. "Real
estate there is still much room for development."