By the Shanghai and Shenzhen, the tightening impact of real estate, after the strong upward momentum in first-tier cities real estate market cooled significantly, and the surrounding cities and some second-tier cities focus on taking over full, a new round of price increases force. This phenomenon has also been the official media's attention today, "Economic Information Daily" published an article OK, the property market is entering a new round of adjustment period.
According to the latest data Shanghai U-right Real Estate Research Center recently released, 28 March to 3 April week, Shanghai commercial housing turnover area of 283,600 square meters, the chain fell 60.44% over the previous week; the average transaction price per square m 32,916 yuan, the chain fell 3.42% over the previous week.
Meanwhile, the China Index Research Institute The latest data show that in March house prices rose in the top ten cities, only first-tier cities of Shanghai and Shenzhen were ranked fifth and eighth. Data show that in March malls (new) housing rose over the previous ten respectively, Dongguan, Huizhou, Suzhou, Kunshan, Shanghai, Zhongshan, Hefei, Shenzhen, Baoding, Nanjing. Among them, Guangdong Dongguan, Huizhou, Suzhou rose to lead the country.
From the transaction area, the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Institute's latest report shows that in March 2016, focused on monitoring of 30 typical city new commercial housing turnover area of 25.63 million square meters, growth of 133.0 percent, an increase of 82.9%, a record monthly turnover highest level.
Yi Ju Yan Yuejin, director of research Institute think tank Center said, driven by soaring first-tier cities, some cities in the panic trading, and the first-tier cities to tighten the lead, some buyers worried about the follow-up second-tier cities will tighten policy, so buyers trading heat clearly, with a strong "rush in the harvest" feature.
Today, the NDRC published an article forecasting the price level of the year, for the price, the NDRC said that this year the city real estate differentiation still serious, even soaring housing prices both rose sharply, but also continued to decline significantly.
Development and Reform Commission forecast that the annual real estate prices will remain clear upward trend, or will be more than last year. However, due to the different parts of stock, new supply, purchasing power, etc., so the prices are still different regions showed significant differentiation trend is expected to the north, on the show a substantial rise in first-tier cities as the representative of the deep and some hot second-tier cities housing prices in the short term situation, but the pre-or large Shenzhen housing prices appear certain level of adjustment; hot second-tier cities housing prices in the short term but also show a clear upward trend, and price increases may have expanded; away stock greater pressure three or four lines urban property prices in the short term downward pressure still exists, but is expected to decline will be reduced, and some four-tier cities housing prices will rise in different degrees.
An extension of reading: the property market boom as a virus-like infection? Turn to the second-tier cities
Since the beginning of this year, Shanghai and north of the skyrocketing real estate market enough to be described as "crazy", evenly matched battle of Nanjing is represented by some second-tier cities. Ministries after two sessions of intensive sound property market, soaring urban market regulation Ruqierzhi. In just the past week, Shanghai, Wuhan, Nanjing, Shenzhen four city resorted to a series of New Deal market regulation, policy is fully tightened. Throughout control means these cities, the core is the purchase and credit limit two.
After landing the New Deal, the Shanghai and Shenzhen property market will cool down significantly, investors have been shipped to leave the policy effect initially apparent. The industry is widely expected to line the property market turnover of new homes will weaken in the coming months, prices or short-term peak.
And after the first-tier cities temporarily "cool", market participants fear that the second-tier cities and the surrounding areas but also cities "unlucky" comprehensive "successor" first-tier cities, the emergence of residential land prices rose in both markets.
According to media reports, the first weekend after the Shanghai and new policies, the surrounding area of the property market will be rapid warming. Hefei sales offices are beginning two days a dense mass of sight, some real estate from the end of last year rose to 12,000 yuan jump 89 thousand dollars or more.
According to Centaline Property Research Center statistics, as of 27 March a total of 54 cities residential signed copy soared 67.6% year on year, of which the second-tier property market turnover rose most significantly, surged 98.3%. The four-tier market traded basically stable, little change.
Data show that second-tier cities housing turnover warming, began to appear from March. Shanghai E-House Research Director, Institute think tank Center Yan Yuejin referred to as "Capital conduction effect", that in a city the threshold gradually, under the background of political pressure, excess capital flows peripherals, and larger amounts of these economies, supply and demand relations tight second-tier cities as a "safe haven." This is not only part of the funds from housing prices, insurance agencies, there are a lot of private investment demand, "panic" and "sensitive" is a common feature.
CSC believes that population movements from the perspective of the capital city or regional core cities are often the first destination for migrants, followed by the North, on the Shenzhen and other cities. Thus, even in a net outflow of population under the larger environment, these cities still able to grasp the opportunities of the population and industry. Insiders eastern tier property market will feature called "class-tier cities," specifically expressed with a certain economy of scale, the region is attractive, relatively tight supply and demand, so it has become the object of envy capital not to blame. At the national level, in addition to interest rates, the introduction of the down payment after the first suite and two suites down policy, but also stimulate massive release of housing demand.
Hang Lung Group Chairman Ronnie Chan said that China second-tier cities in the situation over the past 20 years of rare - not price fluctuations, housing and land transactions are moderately strong. This view represents many developers expected: first-tier cities tightening, four-tier cities market outlook is not good, quite good prospects for this year's second-tier cities.
Recently, the Xinhua News Agency also issued a document wary of the property market "virtual fire" to the second-tier cities conduction. The market generally believes that the current economic situation, I am afraid that this trend will continue conducting, the contagion effect is further amplified. And if the second-tier cities of the property market continued to heat, soaring housing prices, is likely to have attracted as first-tier cities like policy of repression.
Following this eight cities worthy of attention:
1, Nanjing
Nanjing is the capital city of Jiangsu Province, the performance of the property market as a benchmark around the city. Nanjing this time rates and transaction data are consistent with data from the statistical point of view and the media.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics in 70 cities housing sales price statistics show that Nanjing February new housing prices rose 2.7 percent year on year rose 14.1 percent, which developed in eight second-tier cities in the ranking of price movements, called rose the most obvious, "the most crazy." According malls price index statistics show that nearly two years, a total of Nanjing property appears two inflection points, respectively, in April 2014 and March 2015, since March 2015 average price of 13,675 yuan / square meters started, prices will advance into Nanjing period up to February 2016, the average price of new homes has climbed to 15,323 yuan / square meters.
2, Xiamen
Xiamen real estate market can be described as the ups and downs, house prices nationwide downturn, the property market in Xiamen second-tier cities in the country has been the bottom of the real estate market in jeopardy the performance of the developers uneasy.
However, entering 2016, the property market in Xiamen finally punched a pretty "turnaround", the property market higher prices. February 2016, the average price was 22,243 yuan Xiamen / square meters, rose 10.2 percent year on year, up 1.3 percentage points from last month. Although prices rose year on year less than Xiamen, Nanjing, Xiamen, but in general over 20,000 / square meters of housing prices, but also in other distant cities, housing prices due to the large base, a slight increase in the unit price reflects the very obvious. Property visible in Xiamen great pressure to settle down. However, the media and the industry is still optimistic about the property market in Xiamen, Xiamen think prices will continue to rise, and prices will probably
3, Hangzhou
Hangzhou price increases performance, but also similar cities in the "relatively insane" one of the representatives. According to statistics, in February 2016, Hangzhou, prices rose 1.3 percent year on year rose 8.9 percent. Also, according to statistics show house prices in malls, in February 2015, Hangzhou, the average price was 16,153 yuan / square meters, in February this year has climbed to 16,410 yuan / square meters.
While housing prices Hangzhou looked "crazy", but in recent years, statistics show house prices, but did not let buyers unacceptable prices. January 2014, housing prices in Hangzhou style cliff fall, before the maximum value of 18,208 yuan Hangzhou Rate / m, that is to say, when you want to purchase a 100 square meters apartment in Hangzhou Shaopian area, we have a total limit of 200 million. At present, even if house prices rose more than 8.9 percent a year, but the price has continued to maintain a relatively stable balance data line, and no more than even two years ago, well below the price level.
4, Ningbo
Ningbo is one of the relatively rapid economic development in the city, the new housing price index from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in February 2016, Ningbo chain was up 0.6 percent, an increase of 5.5 percentage points.
According to malls and price statistics, the current average price of new residential Ningbo 12,013 yuan / square meters, a single from the price data, per capita income and other comprehensive Ningbo, this is acceptable rate seems, in second-tier cities developed city, it is also considered reasonable of.
5, Jinan
Jinan and Qingdao, also among the top eight second-tier cities developed. Compared to Qingdao, the Jinan overall price level is lower, but the past two years, Jinan, Qingdao than price increases to be much higher.
According to statistical data, in malls and housing prices, Jinan February 2016 average price of 8532 yuan / square meters, up 0.6 percent, an increase of 2.2 percentage points. Qingdao has reached a level of comfort similar. However, the property market rate, significantly higher than Jinan, Qingdao. According to local media reports, in order to seize the rare property to the good market timing, Jinan major real estate companies win the beginning of the year to push a large number of new sites opening the market, some projects even more than 20,000 unit price / m, which is the history of the property market in Jinan unprecedented.
6, Chongqing
He said Chengdu and Chongqing, is the most casual of the two major cities, from the price data, it can be seen. According to malls and housing data statistics, Chongqing in February 2016 the average price of 6977 yuan / square meters, which is eight second-tier cities in the developed lowest price, buy the smallest city in the pressure, you can easily buy a good in Chongqing the house, a lot of the rain-delayed first-tier cities in the hard struggle of people envy.
Judging from Chongqing price gains, but also fairly stable, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in February Chongqing prices rose 0.4 percent, up 1.3 percentage points.
7, Qingdao
Qingdao property market upward trend has no doubt. Rate Statistics from National Bureau of Statistics, the Qingdao house prices at the end appeared carryover upward trend in February, Qingdao home prices edged up 0.1 percentage points. Although the upward trend, but in fact Qingdao Rate now still at a low point, since March 2014 Qingdao house prices began to fall, it has been unable to return to its previous peak level in February 2016 house prices continued to decline year on year by 0.5 percentage points, and Qingdao house prices still ", 8" starts, this situation has been going on for nearly six months. "8 prefix" RATE really made Qingdao citizens and buyers feel happy. And contrast the same ranked "second-tier developed cities" in the other seven cities, Qingdao house prices rose the smallest and most "people."
But in the interview, Xiao Bian also did hear a lot of developers have said that price increases are in the pipeline or have already began to rise. Active buyers into the market and let the market vibrant, developers prices rise a lot of confidence. But the interview is not difficult to find some buyers into the market belongs to panic mentality, "do not only buy a house can not afford" to promote the idea that they have changed their home began to wait and see attitude. In such cases, experts advise home buyers in blue, do not be fooled by the price, relatively speaking, Qingdao RATE "little bubble" prices are not terrible rumors.
8, Dalian
In the current round of inventory in Dalian are all second-tier cities developed only one price "double down" of the city, according to the National Bureau of Statistics released data show that in February 2016, Dalian home prices fell 0.3 percent, down 1.1 percentage points. But Dalian Rate base comparison, according to malls Rate Statistics show that in February 2016 the average price was 10,084 yuan in Dalian / square meters, the average price of new homes passed "10,000 Yuan line."
In recent years, the price trend chart, Dalian rates since May 2014, on a "cliff-style" straight down until November 2015, prices hit bottom, but the average price of new residential Dalian 10,029 yuan / square meters, then began to rebound steadily, but still can not change the fate of housing prices fell. Qingdao and similar situations, the Dalian property market rebound is slow steady children, opened in 2016 in the various New Deal Dalian property market, really injected a needle "tonic", so the new home market from Dalian to transaction prices have begun to enter "rejuvenation" state.